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Technical Analysis

Technique. Basis

Technical analysis - the study of the dynamics of the market, often by means of graphs, in order to predict future price trends.

Term dynamics of the market includes the following main sources of information at the disposal of the technical analyst, namely the price, volume and open interest. By price we mean the "thermodynamic" equilibrium between supply and demand for a given currency, a numeric value at which the current time, transactions.

In considering methods of technical analysis we will focus on the following main topics:

1. Prologue, which will discuss the main concepts and methods of data used in technical analysis.

2.The second part will be devoted to methods of technical analysis, the so-called graphical analysis.

3. In the third part we will focus on methods of computer analysis, based on the extensive use of quantitative methods of information processing, including the methods of mathematical statistics and special processing algorithms and data representation by means of which are calculated and interpreted so-called technical market indicators.

The philosophical basis of the technical analysis.

Technical analysis is based on the following basic postulates derived from the Dow Theory:

1. The price includes all. In other words the price is the result of reflection and exhaustive of all the driving forces of the market. Any factor influencing the price (economic, political or psychological) are already considered by the market and is included in the price. Thus, all that affects the price, certainly at this price and the most affected. With the help of price charts market itself announces its intentions attentive analyst whose task correctly and on time to interpret these intentions. Moreover, knowledge of the market wishes motivation is hardly necessary for the correct prediction. All that is required to predict - to study the price chart. A macro-economic indicators, which are the subject of fundamental analysis, has long been considered by the market and are the only evidence and explanation already a fait accompli.

 

2. The movement of the prices of a trend.  The concept of trend or trend - one of the basic technical analysis. Life of the market consists of alternating periods of growth and decline in prices, so that within each period is the development of the mainstream, which exists as long as the market development will begin in the opposite direction. The challenge is to identify these trends in the early stages of their development and trade according to their destination.

3. History repeats itself. The fact that certain configurations on price charts tend to recur consistently and repeatedly, and in different markets and in different time scales, is a consequence of the objective laws of physics, economics, and psychology. Those rules, which acted in the past, are now, and will operate in the future. Based on this and all future forecasting techniques.

Technical Analysis: Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis

Technical analysis and fundamental analysis are the two main schools of thought in the financial markets. As we've mentioned, technical analysis looks at the price movement of a security and uses this data to predict its future price movements. Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, looks at economic factors, known as fundamentals. Let's get into the details of how these two approaches differ, the criticisms against technical analysis and how technical and fundamental analysis can be used together to analyze securities. 

The Differences
Charts vs. Financial Statements
At the most basic level, a technical analyst approaches a security from the charts, while a fundamental analyst starts with the financial statements.

By looking at the balance sheet, cash flow statement and income statement, a fundamental analyst tries to determine a company's value. In financial terms, an analyst attempts to measure a company's intrinsic value. In this approach, investment decisions are fairly easy to make - if the price of a stock trades

 

below its intrinsic value, it's a good investment. Although this is an  oversimplification (fundamental analysis goes beyond just the financial statements) for the purposes of this tutorial, this simple tenet holds true. 


Technical traders, on the other hand, believe there is no reason to analyze a company's fundamentals because these are all accounted for in the stock's price. Technicians believe that all the information they need about a stock can be found in its charts. 

Time Horizon 
Fundamental analysis takes a relatively long-term approach to analyzing the market compared to technical analysis. While technical analysis can be used on a timeframe of weeks, days or even minutes, fundamental analysis often looks at data over a number of years. 

The different timeframes that these two approaches use is a result of the nature of the investing style to which they each adhere. It can take a long time for a company's value to be reflected in the market, so when a fundamental analyst estimates intrinsic value, a gain is not realized until the stock's market price rises to its "correct" value. This type of investing is called value investing and assumes that the short-term market is wrong, but that the price of a particular stock will correct itself over the long run. This "long run" can represent a timeframe of as long as several years, in some cases.

Furthermore, the numbers that a fundamentalist analyzes are only released over long periods of time. Financial statements are filed quarterly and changes in earnings per share don't emerge on a daily basis like price and volume information. Also remember that fundamentals are the actual characteristics of a business. New management can't implement sweeping changes overnight and it takes time to create new products, marketing campaigns, supply chains, etc. Part of the reason that fundamental analysts use a long-term timeframe, therefore, is because the data they use to analyze a stock is generated much more slowly than the price and volume data used by technical analysts.

Graphic and computer methods of technical analysis

All technical analysis, with a sufficient degree of conditionality, on the methods used can be divided into two areas:

- Classic technical analysis based on the study and analysis of price charts;

- Computer technical analysis based on the extensive use of methods of mathematical statistics and special data processing algorithms.

 It does not matter or that uses "graphic analyst" computer technology or not, his main working tool is the schedule. Everything else is secondary. Analysis of graphics in any case is a matter quite subjective. Its success depends largely on the skill of the individual analyst and is not a science but rather an art.

    In the case of the use of computer methods, all data are quantitative analysis using special algorithms that are programmed so that the computer output signals to buy and sell. Regardless of the complexity of such systems is the main purpose of their creation is to minimize or eliminate the subjective human factor out of the decision making process, to bring it under some scientific basis. Analysts of this type may use no graphics. But, nevertheless, they are considered technical analysts because all their activity is reduced to the study of the dynamics of the market.